USA - China: Dialog der Gehörlosen

NEW YORK – Der am 19. Januar beginnende Besuch des chinesischen Präsidenten Hu Jintao in den USA erfolgt zu einer Zeit, da sich der Wirtschaftskonflikt zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und China zu einer der besorgniserregendsten globalen Entwicklungen herausbildet. Das ganze letzte Jahr über drängten die USA China zu einer Aufwertung des Renminbi, während China der quantitativen Lockerung in den USA die Schuld an den Turbulenzen auf den Devisenmärkten gibt. Die beiden Seiten reden aneinander vorbei, obwohl beide auch stichhaltige Argumente vorbringen.

Die globalen Ungleichgewichte, die dem Crash von 2008 zugrunde lagen, wurden nicht ausgeräumt – vielmehr haben sich manche noch vertieft. Die USA konsumieren noch immer mehr als sie produzieren und weisen ein chronisches Handelsbilanzdefizit auf. Der Verbrauch ist mit fast 70 Prozent des BIP zu hoch, während er in China auf einem untragbar niedrigem Wert von 35,6 Prozent des BIP liegt. Die US-Haushalte sind überschuldet und müssen mehr sparen.   

Die amerikanische Wirtschaft benötigt eine höhere Produktivität, aber die US-Konzerne, die sehr profitabel arbeiten, häufen das Geld an, anstatt es zu investieren. Die quantitative Lockerung soll der Bedrohung einer Deflation entgegensteuern.

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