Paul Lachine

Обратная сторона незначительного роста

РИО-ДЕ-ЖАНЕЙРО. С конца прошлого года ряд позитивных изменений повысил доверие инвесторов и привел к резкому ралли в рисковых активах, начиная с глобального рынка акций и сырьевых товаров. Макроэкономические данные из США улучшились; компании голубых фишек в странах с развитой экономикой остаются высокорентабельными, Китай и развивающиеся рынки замедлились лишь незначительно, а риск беспорядочного дефолта и/или выхода некоторых членов еврозоны снизился.

Кроме того, под управлением своего нового президента, Марио Драги, Европейский центральный банк проявляет готовность сделать все необходимое, чтобы снизить нагрузку на банковскую систему еврозоны и правительства, а также снизить процентные ставки. Центральные банки развитых и развивающихся стран обеспечили массивные вливания ликвидности. Волатильность снижается, доверие растет, и неприятие риска значительно ниже ‑ на данный момент.

Но в этом году, вероятно, материализуются по крайней мере четыре скрытых риска, подрывая рост мировой экономики и, в конечном итоге, негативно сказываясь на уверенности инвесторов и рыночных оценках рисковых активов.

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