Paul Lachine

Une reprise en trompe-l'œil

RIO DE JANEIRO – Depuis l'année dernière, une série d'évènements a redonné confiance aux investisseurs et suscité un rebond marqué dans le secteur des actifs à risque, notamment en ce qui concerne la Bourse et les matières premières. Les indicateurs macroéconomiques des USA se sont redressés, les grandes entreprises des pays avancés sont restées fortement bénéficiaires, le ralentissement de la Chine et des pays émergents a été limité et le risque d'un défaut et/ou d'une sortie d'un pays de la zone euro a diminué.

Depuis l'arrivée de Mario Draghi à sa tête, la Banque centrale européenne semble disposée à faire tout ce qu'il faut pour diminuer les taux d'intérêt et réduire le stress financier qui pèse sur le système bancaire et les Etats de la zone euro. Les banques centrales des pays avancés et des pays émergents ont injecté massivement des liquidités. La volatilité diminue, la confiance revient et pour l'instant l'aversion à l'égard du risque est bien moindre.

Néanmoins quatre éléments vont probablement miner la croissance mondiale cette année, avec pour conséquence une moindre confiance des investisseurs et une baisse de la valeur des actifs à risque :

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