La chimère turque

WASHINGTON – Les spectaculaires révoltes populaires en Tunisie, Égypte et Libye ont servi de catalyseur à un éveil plus général du monde arabe, une évolution qui a fondamentalement ébranlé l’ordre politique du Moyen-Orient en place depuis la fin des années 1970. Bien qu’il soit encore trop tôt pour prédire l’issue de ces changements, plusieurs de leurs répercussions régionales importantes commencent à se faire jour.

Tout d’abord, ces révoltes populaires sont une épée à double tranchant pour l’Iran. Le régime iranien pourrait profiter du renversement ou de l’affaiblissement de régimes et de dirigeants favorables à l’Occident en Égypte, en Jordanie et en Arabie saoudite, mais l’appui initial donné par l’Iran aux soulèvements démocratiques tunisien et égyptien comportait un revers de la médaille. Les autorités iraniennes durent rapidement revoir leur position lorsque les Iraniens commencèrent à réclamer les mêmes droits démocratiques, laissant à penser que des pressions plus fortes en faveur de la démocratie et d’un changement politique pourraient s’exercer en Iran même au moyen et long terme.

Ensuite, ces soulèvements risquent de contribuer à isoler davantage encore Israël. Avec le départ de Moubarak, l’État hébreu a perdu son plus important partenaire régional. En fait, cette perte, couplée à la sérieuse dégradation de ses relations avec la Turquie, lui ont fait perdre ses alliés les plus avérés de la région. Même si le régime militaire d’intérim égyptien s’est engagé à adhérer au traité de paix de 1979, un nouveau gouvernement, plus démocratique, pourrait adopter une position différente.

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