土耳其怪兽

华盛顿——

发生在突尼斯、埃及和利比亚戏剧性的起义成了触发更大范围阿拉伯觉醒的催化剂,从根本上动摇了中东地区的政治秩序。这种政治秩序建立于上世纪70年代末期。虽然现在就预测最后的结果为时尚早,但已经开始呈现出重要的地区性影响。

首先,这些动乱对伊朗而言是一把双刃剑。伊朗政权可能会受益于埃及、约旦和沙特阿拉伯这类亲西方国家领导人和政权的下台或削弱。尽管伊朗兴冲冲地鼓动突尼斯和埃及的民主革命,但结果恐怕是要笑在前而哭在后。从中长期看,伊朗面临着要求进行民主和政治变革的压力可能更大。因此,一旦本国人民也要求同样的民主权利的时候,伊朗官员恐怕就不得不踩急刹车了。

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