Paul Lachine

Verrat der Ökonomen

LONDON: Alle epochalen Ereignisse beruhen auf Vorstellungen – einer Korrelierung normalerweise unverbundener Ereignisse, die die Menschheit aus ihrem üblichen Trott herausreißt. Derartige Vorstellungen bringen hervor, was der Autor Nassim Nicholas Taleb „schwarze Schwäne“ genannt hat: unvorhersehbare Ereignisse mit enormen Auswirkungen. Eine kleine Zahl dieser schwarzen Schwäne, so Taleb „erklärt fast alles, was in unserer Welt passiert“.

Der Wohlstand des ersten Zeitalters der Globalisierung vor 1914 etwa resultierte aus einer erfolgreichen Konstellation verschiedener Entwicklungen: sinkenden Transport- und Kommunikationskosten, den technologischen Durchbrüchen der zweiten Industriellen Revolution, dem friedlichen Zustand der internationalen Beziehungen und der erfolgreichen Handhabung des Goldstandards durch Großbritannien. In den Zwischenkriegsjahren dagegen verband sich eine vergiftete internationale Politik mit wirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichten, um die Große Depression hervorzurufen und dem Zweiten Weltkrieg den Weg zu bereiten.

Betrachten wir nun die jüngsten Finanzinnovationen. Auf dem Rücken der neuen Computer- und Telekommunikationstechnologie entstand ein riesiger Markt für derivative Finanzinstrumente. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs, überwiegend an Hypotheken geknüpft) machten eine neue Bevölkerung aufstrebender Eigenheimbesitzer angeblich kreditwürdig, indem sie die ausgebenden Banken in die Lage versetzen, „minderwertige“ Schulden an andere Investoren zu verkaufen.

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