Paul Lachine

经济学家的背叛

伦敦——所有历史性的事件都来源于一些事情的共同作用——往往一些不相关的事情会的联合作用导致一些不可控制的结果。在纳西姆·塔勒布的书中,将这些共同的事件称为“黑天鹅”—不可预知的事件而导致的巨大影响。虽然只是一小群黑天鹅,塔勒布认为,“几乎可以解释我们世界上的一切事情。“

例如,在1914年之前的 第一次全球化的兴起就来源于一连串成功事件的组合:交通通讯费用的下降,第二次工业革命在技术上的突破创新,太平洋国家之间的相互交流以及大英帝国鼎盛时期成功的管理方法。与此对应的是,全球经济的不平衡伴随着多年的国际政治纠纷争端导致的战争,结果就是大萧条时代的产生以及随后爆发的第二次世界大战。

现在我们来看看近期的金融创新。随着新式电脑以及通讯技术的发展,新的衍生工具开始有了巨大的市场。债务抵押债券 CDO(CDO通常和住房贷款联系在一起)使得一大批人拥有自己的住房的愿望得以实现,于是,银行又开始将“次级房贷”又转售给了其他投资者。

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