Paul Lachine

La tragica cecità negli scambi commerciali

LONDRA – Il Doha Round per la liberalizzazione degli scambi commerciali è sull’orlo del precipizio dopo dieci anni di trattative. Si tratta di una tragedia, dal momento che i benefici scaturiti sulla base di quanto già concordato nei negoziati sono notevoli e potrebbero dare una spinta importante all’economia globale. Il fallimento verrebbe imputato ai leader politici presenti nei maggiori paesi commerciali sia del mondo avanzato che del mondo in via di sviluppo e potrebbe costare all’economia globale un’entrata annua aggiuntiva pari a 700 miliardi di dollari.

Se invece il Round giungesse al termine, ne scaturirebbero, oltre al beneficio generale, specifici miglioramenti per i paesi meno sviluppati del mondo. L’Unione europea, ad esempio, ha già concordato che questi paesi possano ottenere per le proprie esportazioni un accesso ai mercati senza dogane e aliquote e ha abolito i sussidi per l’export sui prodotti agricoli a partire dal 2013.

Esempi di questo genere non mancano. D’altra parte esiste la possibilità che nessuna di queste ipotesi prenda piede se non si giungerà ad un accordo generale per concludere il Round. La prassi che governa i negoziati sul commercio globale è infatti di non consegnare nulla fino a quando non venga raggiunto un accordo su ogni aspetto.

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