El balance final de Li Keqiang

SHANGHÁI – Todo el mundo habla del desaceleramiento económico chino. El año pasado, el crecimiento del PBI chino llegó a su valor mínimo en los últimos 13 años y no hay repuntes a la vista. Pero, como parece reconocerlo el primer ministro Li Keqiang, esta tendencia en realidad podría ser beneficiosa para impulsar las reformas estructurales que China necesita para alcanzar su meta de largo plazo de un crecimiento equilibrado y estable del PBI.

Las evaluaciones recientes brindan un panorama deprimente para la segunda mayor economía del mundo. En su último informe de Perspectivas económicas mundiales, el Banco Mundial redujo la tasa de crecimiento económico pronosticada para China, del 8,4 % al 7,7 %. Además, datos recientemente dados a conocer por el banco central muestran que los bancos chinos aumentaron sus créditos en solo ¥667 mil millones ($108 mil millones) en mayo –una disminución de aproximadamente ¥125 mil millones respecto del mismo período para el año pasado.

Pero no alcanza con prestar más para mejorar la situación. Dado que los créditos pendientes ya casi significan el doble del PBI chino –como resultado del masivo estímulo del país desde 2008– los nuevos créditos se usan en gran parte para pagar viejas deudas, no para invertir en la economía real. La preocupación más relevante, entonces, es que el saldo de créditos pendientes no ha aumentado.

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