美国利率将继续上升

美国剑桥—六个月前,我指出美国长期利率将上升,导致债券价格下降、拥有十年期美国国债的投资者遭受的债券价值下跌将超过他们所获得的债券利率与短期货币基金和银行存款利率之间的差额。

这已警告被证明是正确的。自2月以来,十年期美国国债利率上升了近一个百分点至2.72%,这意味着债券价格下跌了近10%。

但未来如何?当前长期利率的上升只是涨势的开端,下注于长期债券寻求超额收益率的投资者将受到惩罚。由于目前通胀预期为2%,因此十年期债券的真实利率仍然低于1%。过去的经验表明,真实率将至少升至2%,即使通胀预期继续维持在2%,总名义利率也将升至4%以上。

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