El talón de Aquiles del crecimiento de China

El explosivo crecimiento económico de China depende del resto del mundo, cambiando radicalmente la cadena de producción global y desafiando el sistema de comercio mundial. Si China mantiene el impulso de su crecimiento durante las próximas dos décadas, el sistema mundial enfrentará enormes retos. De hecho, la pregunta no es tanto si el sistema global soportará los desequilibrios generados por China, sino cuán graves éstos terminarán siendo.

Gran parte de las preocupaciones de los últimos años se han centrado en los inmensos déficits fiscal y de cuenta corriente de EE.UU., y sus esfuerzos por hacer que China deje flotar el yuan más libremente con respecto al dólar. En contraste, China considera que su crecimiento está ligado a una moneda estable, y puede no querer introducir un régimen cambiario más flexible, incluso después de la revalorización de 2,1% en julio, mientras no se vayan solucionando problemas estructurales para los cuales es extremadamente difícil establecer un cronograma.

De hecho, aunque la economía china ha experimentado un auge en la última década, se ha reducido el ritmo del ajuste estructural de sus sectores internos, principalmente debido a limitaciones políticas. El sistema bancario sigue siendo frágil y enfermizo; los mercados de capitales están en agonía.

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