El déficit de capacitación

BRUSELAS – Después de dos años de producirse un ataque de nervios en la economía  mundial a raíz del colapso de Lehman Brothers, los mercados financieros globales siguen inestables, y la recuperación que comenzó con tanto vigor en 2009 parece estancarse.

La desaceleración, como era de esperarse, ha suscitado llamados que piden más estímulos fiscales y monetarios. El argumento parece simple: sólo una fuerte dosis de gasto público y un enorme apoyo del banco central al sistema financiero impidieron llegar a una segunda Gran Depresión, por lo que ahora se necesita más de la misma medicina para evitar  un regreso a la recesión.

Este argumento parece particularmente fuerte en los Estados Unidos, donde durante los largos años de expansión  se acostumbró a las tasas de desempleo de alrededor de 5% y a un crecimiento sostenido del consumo. Sin embargo, al evaluar las perspectivas de la economía estadounidense, no se debe comparar las bajas tasas de crecimiento trimestrales (los datos para abril-junio son especialmente decepcionantes) y la tasa actual de desempleo de casi 10% con el periodo dorado de la burbuja. Se requiere una visión de largo plazo porque los Estados Unidos se enfrentan a un desafío de ajuste estructural que vendrá acompañado de un alto desempleo.

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