Le déficit des compétences

BRUXELLES – Deux ans après la crise de nerfs de l’économie mondiale suite à la faillite de Lehman Brothers, les marchés financiers mondiaux demeurent instables et la reprise, si dynamique en 2009, semble piétiner.

Le ralentissement a, de manière prévisible, généré des appels à plus de relance monétaire et budgétaire. L’argument est simple : seule une dose massive de dépenses publiques et un soutien conséquent de la banque centrale au système financier ont permis d’éviter un glissement vers une deuxième Grande Dépression ; une dose supplémentaire du même remède est donc aujourd’hui nécessaire pour éviter un retour en récession.

Cet argument semble particulièrement soutenu aux Etats-Unis qui, durant les longues années d’essor économique, se sont habitués à des taux de chômage aux alentours de 5% et à une croissance stable de la consommation. Mais, en évaluant les perspectives économiques américaines, il ne faudrait pas chercher à comparer les faibles taux de croissance trimestriels (les chiffres pour la période d’avril à juin sont particulièrement décevants) et le taux de chômage actuel de près de 10% avec la période d’essor dorée. Une vision à plus long terme est nécessaire parce que les Etats-Unis se retrouvent face à un défi de rajustement structurel qui s’accompagnera d’un taux de chômage élevé.

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