美国衰退的形状

纽约——现在美国陷入衰退的事实已经再明显不过,有关衰退的辩论也已经转向了这次衰退将是浅层次的短期衰退,还是深层次的长期衰退——这个问题对世界其他国家与对美国同样重要。

答案取决于美国衰退的形状:如果是浅层次的短期衰退,那么其他地方足够的经济增长将能确保全球经济只出现轻微的放缓现象。但如果美国的衰退是长期深层次的衰退,那么结果可能导致其他某些国家即刻陷入衰退(包括英国、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利和日本),甚至导致脆弱的新兴市场国家爆发经济危机。

大体上,美国经济衰退可能出现V、U、W或L等几种形状。但这四种情况中哪一种的可能性更大?

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