Jim Meehan

Дорога к послекризисному росту

МИЛАН. Прошло почти 18 месяцев, как разразился финансовый кризис, и 12 месяцев, как паника начала стихать, а курсы ценных бумаг стабилизировались и поползли вверх. Хотя выздоровление в передовых странах и остаётся хрупким, развивающиеся страны, кажется, выдержали бурю. Экономический рост в Индии и Китае стремительно возвращается на докризисный уровень, в Бразилии рост возобновляется после резкого падения, а торговля в развивающихся странах снова совершила скачок вверх с депрессивных уровней.

Причин для такой поразительной устойчивости немало, и они дают руководство, как для развитых стран, так и для развивающихся. Когда разразился кризис, капитал стал выводиться из развивающихся стран, чтобы подпереть нарушенный финансовый баланс в развитых странах. Кредиты резко подорожали. Но быстрые ответные действия центральных банков развивающихся стран в сотрудничестве со своими относительно здоровыми банками предотвратили резкое замораживание кредитов.

Более того, резервы, которые увеличились по сравнению с предыдущим десятилетием, во многих случаях были использованы для частичной компенсации оттока капитала. Банковские балансные отчеты были сильно укреплены после финансового кризиса 1997-1998 годов и были освобождены от долгов переоцененными секьюритизированными активами и комплексными производными ценными бумагами, которые, в основном, и повлекли убытки финансовых институтов развитых стран.

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