Paul Lachine

Zehn Fragen zur quantitativen Lockerung

NEW YORK – Die meisten Beobachter betrachten unkonventionelle geldpolitische Strategien wie die quantitative Lockerung (QE) als nötig, um den anämischen Volkswirtschaften von heute einen Wachstumsschub zu verleihen. Doch zugleich mehren sich die Fragen nach der Effektivität und den Risiken der QE. Dabei verdienen zehn mit derartigen Strategien verbundene potenzielle Kosten besondere Beachtung.

Erstens kann eine rein „österreichische“ Reaktion (d.h., Austerität) auf platzende Vermögens- und Kreditblasen zwar zu einer Depression führen, doch kann eine Politik der quantitativen Lockerung, die die nötige Entschuldung des privaten und des öffentlichen Sektors zu lange hinausschiebt, eine Armee von Zombies hervorbringen: Zombie-Finanzinstitute, Zombie-Haushalte, Zombie-Unternehmen und letztendlich Zombie-Regierungen. Also muss man die QE irgendwo zwischen den Extrempositionen der Anhänger der österreichischen Schule und der Keynesianer auslaufen lassen.

Zweitens kann eine wiederholte QE im Laufe der Zeit ihre Effektivität verlieren, wenn die Übertragungskanäle zur realwirtschaftlichen Aktivität verstopfen. Sind die Anleihe-Erträge bereits niedrig, funktioniert der Anleihe-Kanal nicht, und wenn die Banken Liquidität anhäufen und die Umlaufgeschwindigkeit zusammenbricht, funktioniert der Kreditkanal nicht. Wer Kredit bekommen kann (finanzstarke Unternehmen und Privathaushalte mit guter Bonität), will oder braucht keinen, während diejenigen, die auf Kredite angewiesen sind – stark fremdkapitalisierte Unternehmen und Haushalte mit geringer Bonität – wegen der Kreditverknappung keine Kredite bekommen.

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