中国特色的影子借贷

发自香港——中国影子银行体系正不断扩张。其不具透明度及监管松散的特性是否会触发金融动荡?中国影子银行的规模及风险有多大?

根据中国银监会统计,影子银行(指没有达到传统银行贷款相同监管标准的借贷)的借贷金额从2008年的8000亿元人民币(约合1300亿美元)增长到2012年的7.6万亿元(约为GDP的14.6%)。我们估计,中国商业银行在资产负债表外的借贷活动总额在2012年高达17万亿元人民币,相当于全国GDP的1/3。其中包括房地产开发商贷款(占30~40%)、地方政府实体借贷(占20~30%)、以及中小企业、个人和过桥贷款。

 “影子银行”这个概念早在美国次贷危机期间已经声名大振,用于说明资本市场上的非传统银行借贷资产,例如货币市场基金、资产担保证券、杠杆衍生产品。它们通常都是由投资银行和大型机构投资者出资运作。2007年,美国影子银行交易额已经超过了传统银行资产的交易额。金融稳定委员会估计2011年全球影子银行的总资产达到67万亿美元,其中美国占23万亿美元,欧元区22万亿美元,英国9万亿美元。相比,中国的影子银行资产只有2.2万亿美元。

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