Paul Lachine

Die Stabilisierung des arabischen Erwachens

LONDON – Die wirtschaftliche Situation in den Ländern des so genannten arabischen Erwachens verschlechtert sich rasant. Ägypten geht das Geld aus – vor den  jüngsten Notkrediten reichten die Devisenreserven für weniger als die Importe in drei Monaten – und in Erwartung künftiger Engpässe horten die Ägypter Treibstoff und Nahrungsmittel. Häufigere und immer länger andauernde Stromausfälle lassen in einer Ökonomie, die ohnehin mit Massenarbeitslosigkeit, Ausgrenzung und tiefer Armut kämpft, noch Schlimmeres erahnen.

Kurzfristige makroökonomische Stabilität ist die unmittelbare Priorität in Ägypten und anderen Ländern des arabischen Erwachens. Mittelfristig allerdings steht die Lebensfähigkeit der gegenwärtigen Ordnung auf dem Spiel – und zwar nicht nur in diesen Ländern, sondern im gesamten Nahen Osten und in ganz Nordafrika.

Angesichts dieser Bedrohungen zeigte sich Majid Jafar von der in den VAE ansässigen Firma Crescent Petroleum auf dem jüngsten Weltwirtschaftsforum zum Nahen Osten und Nordafrika am Toten Meer zu Recht besorgt. Sein Vorschlag für einen arabischen Stabilisierungsplan nach dem Muster des Marshall-Plans für  Westeuropa nach 1945  ist lobenswert. Die Notwendigkeit umfassender koordinierter Maßnahmen erscheint zwingend, aber ist der Marshall-Plan auch das richtige Modell?

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