Paul Lachine

La nécessité d’un point d’ancrage de l’Éveil arabe

LONDRES – La situation économique des pays du célèbre Éveil arabe se détériore aujourd’hui à grande vitesse. L’Égypte est à court de liquidités – avant l’octroi des récentes aides, les réserves de change du pays ne pouvaient assurer que moins de trois mois d’importations – et les Égyptiens stockent carburant et denrées alimentaires en prévision des pénuries futures. Les pannes de courant, de plus en plus fréquentes et permanentes, semblent présager que le pire est à venir, dans une économie aux prises avec un chômage de masse, une exclusion généralisée, et en proie à de profondes poches de pauvreté.

C’est la stabilité macroéconomique à court terme qui constitue la priorité immédiate en Égypte et dans les autres pays de l’Éveil arabe. À moyen terme, c’est en revanche la viabilité de l’ordre actuel qui est en jeu – et non seulement dans ces États, mais également dans le reste de l’Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient.

Compte tenu de l’ampleur des enjeux, Majid Jafar, de la société Crescent Petroleum basée aux ÉAU, a eu raison de faire part de son inquiétude lors du récent Forum économique mondial sur le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord, qui s’est tenu sur les rives de la mer Morte. Inspirée du Plan Marshall d’après 1945 en Europe occidentale, sa proposition de Plan arabe de stabilisation est certes louable. La nécessité de l’impératif d’une action coordonnée de grande envergure est considérable. Pour autant, le Plan Marshall constitue-t-il le modèle le plus approprié ?

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