Paul Lachine

锚定阿拉伯觉醒国家

伦敦—所谓阿拉伯觉醒(Arab Awakening)国家的经济状况正在快速恶化。埃及现金告急——在最近的援助贷款之前,货币储备只能维持不到三个月的进口——预料会出现未来短缺的埃及人纷纷囤积燃料和食品。停电越来越频繁、时间越来越长,这表明这个正在经受大规模失业、普遍的排斥感和大量贫困的国家境况还会继续恶化。

短期宏观经济稳定是奇迹和其他阿拉伯觉醒国家当下最要紧的事项。但是,从中期看,当前秩序的可行性才是重大问题——不仅阿拉伯觉醒国家是如此,整个北非和中东地区都是如此。

兹事体大,阿联酋新月石油公司(Crescent Petroleum)的贾法尔(Majid Jafar)在最近的死海中东和北非世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum on the Middle East and North Africa)上提出的担忧是正确的。受1945年西欧马歇尔计划的启发,他提出了一个阿拉伯稳定计划(Arab Stabilization Plan),颇值得赞赏。大规模合作行动的需要是迫切的。但马歇尔计划是正确的模式吗?

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