El populismo idóneo para Polonia

Las elecciones parlamentarias y presidenciales de Polonia que se han celebrado este mes han atestiguado la muerte de un partido de izquierda poscomunista que dominaba el país en gran medida desde 1995, pero la desaparición de la izquierda no significa que la derecha tenga un programa económico coherente, pues la coalición victoriosa del partido Ley y Justicia (PiS) y de la Plataforma Cívica (PO) está dividida entre los instintos liberal (PO) y populista (PiS).

Si se plasman los lemas populistas del PiS en una política, es probable que aumente el gasto estatal, lo que  agravará la situación fiscal, ya débil, de Polonia y, por consiguiente, desencadenará perspectivas inflacionistas. Peor aún: el aumento del gasto social contribuirá poco a resolver la asombrosa tasa del 17 por ciento de desempleo –la mayor parte de ella estructural–, pero, además, se irá al garete cualquier esperanza de adopción rápida del euro.

Lo que Polonia necesita sobre todo es disciplina fiscal y reformas en pro del mercado, incluida la relajación de la rígida legislación laboral que está inhibiendo la creación de puestos de trabajo. Al fin y al cabo, en los dos últimos decenios los objetivos duraderos de desmantelamiento del comunismo y la planificación centralizada, además de la adhesión a la Unión Europea, han actuado como importantes fuerzas motrices de la reforma, pero, ¿podrá un gobierno liberal a medias y a medias populista contar con la voluntad política necesaria para una reforma renovada?

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