L’arrivée au pouvoir de la droite populiste en Pologne

Ce mois-ci, les élections parlementaires et présidentielles en Pologne ont enterré le parti postcommuniste de gauche régnant à la tête du pays depuis 1995. Cependant, la fin de la gauche ne signifie pas pour autant que le programme économique de la droite soit cohérent. Nous ne devons pas oublier, en effet, que la coalition victorieuse formée du parti Droit et Justice (PiS) et de la Plate-forme Civique (PO) se déchire entre ses tendances libérales (PO) et ses penchants populistes (PiS). 

Si les slogans populistes du PiS venaient à être traduits dans une politique économique, les dépenses publiques augmenteraient très certainement, aggraveraient la situation fiscale déjà fragile de la Pologne et provoqueraient, par conséquent, d’importantes poussées inflationnistes. Pire encore, l’accroissement des dépenses sociales permettrait à peine de réduire le taux de chômage national effrayant de 17,5 % – un chômage essentiellement structurel – alors que tout espoir d’adoption rapide de l’euro serait anéanti. 

En fait, les deux objectifs économiques les plus importants que la Pologne devraient viser sont la discipline fiscale et les réformes orientées vers l’économie de marché telles que l’assouplissement des lois du travail rigides qui handicapent la création d’emplois. N’oublions pas que, pendant les deux dernières décennies, les objectifs permanents du démantèlement du système communiste et de la planification centralisée, ainsi que de l’adhésion à l’Union européenne ont servi de force motrice aux réformes. Or, dans un gouvernement mi-libéral et mi-populiste, est-il possible de mobiliser la volonté politique suffisante pour mettre en place de nouvelles réformes ?

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