Dean Rohrer

Le retour du leadership franco-allemand

PARIS – Quelle que soit l’issue des élections législatives de septembre en Allemagne, le moment est à nouveau venu de lancer une grande initiative franco-allemande. Indépendamment de leurs situations économiques et de la confiance – ou du manque de confiance – qu’elles ont l’une en l’autre, la France et l’Allemagne sont plus que jamais conjointement responsables de l’avenir, si ce n’est de la survie même, du projet européen.

Peut-on envisager une alternative au leadership franco-allemand de l’Union européenne ? Associer la Grande-Bretagne à ces deux pays dans un club des trois serait une bonne idée, mais c’est hors de question aujourd’hui. La Grande-Bretagne s’est largement exclue de tout rôle de direction en Europe. Gordon Brown peine déjà à survivre en tant que premier ministre et les conservateurs, dont le retour au pouvoir l’année prochaine est quasi certain, sont toujours aussi « provincialement » eurosceptiques, si ce n’est davantage. L’Europe ne peut pas compter sur les Britanniques, au moins pour un moment.

Lancée par Nicolas Sarkozy plus tôt durant sa présidence, l’idée abstraite d’un club des six est aujourd’hui intenable. Compte tenu des « sexcapades » de Silvio Berlusconi, l’Italie sous sa coupe ne peut être prise au sérieux ; quant à l’Espagne, elle n’est plus dans la course pour un rôle de dirigeant de l’Union européenne à cause d’une situation économique désastreuse. En Pologne, bien que les empotés « jumeaux » Kaczynski aient été retirés du pouvoir, l’obsession du pays pour la sécurité dans son voisinage immédiat est incompatible avec un réel leadership européen.

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