El renminbi avanza

BEIJING – En junio, el Banco Popular de China (PBC por sus siglas en inglés), el banco central chino, anunció el fin de los 23 meses de vinculación del renminbi al dólar y que se regresaría al régimen cambiario previo a la crisis que se había adoptado en julio de 2005. Hasta ahora, sin embargo, la apreciación del renminbi frente al dólar ha sido lenta. ¿Acaso se acelerará el ritmo de la apreciación lo suficiente como para satisfacer las exigencias de los Estados Unidos? Si es así, ¿desaparecerán más pronto los desequilibrios globales?

Es difícil sostener que el renminbi no está subvaluado dados los amplios y continuos excedentes en la cuenta corriente y en la cuenta de capital chinas. Sin embargo, parece improbable que en el futuro inmediato se acelere la apreciación del renminbi pese al fin de su vinculación con el dólar.

La posición oficial de China es que para evitar el impacto negativo de un renminbi más fuerte en las exportaciones de ese país, y por consiguiente, en el empleo, la apreciación debe llevarse a cabo de forma gradual, autónoma y controlada. El actual régimen cambiario, que vincula al renminbi con una canasta de divisas, se creó para dar al banco central chino la libertad de controlar el ritmo de la apreciación, y al mismo tiempo crear fluctuaciones en dos sentidos en el tipo de cambio frente al dólar a fin de desalentar los ataques en un solo sentido contra el renminbi de los especuladores.

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