Come è definita una recessione?

STANFORD – L'ottimismo emerso nelle prime fasi della ripresa dalla crisi finanziaria e dalla recessione ha lasciato il posto a valutazioni più serie relative alle sfide a breve, medio e lungo termine rivolte all'economia globale e alle sue componenti nazionali.

In molti paesi, le preoccupazioni sono nate da un prolungato periodo di crescita lenta e a tratti negativa, dai persistenti ostacoli a un calo della disoccupazione e dalla continua ansia sull'andamento economico; o peggio, da un “decennio perduto” in stile giapponese, in cui si è passati da una recessione all'altra; o, peggio ancora, da una depressione (a cui si sono rifatti politici e intellettuali sperando di giustificare i continui e ingenti interventi di governo in ambito economico per gli anni che verranno).

Ma sono così insolite più contrazioni in periodi di grave difficoltà economica? Sarebbe utile conoscere la risposta a questa domanda prima di cercare di pompare ripetutamente l'economia nel breve periodo con politiche costose che potrebbero peggiorare le prospettive a lungo termine.

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