Dean Rohrer

虚拟实力的现实

发自达沃斯——当阿拉伯国家政权在Twitter和半岛电视台推动的民众示威浪潮中苦苦挣扎,而美国外交官们则尝试理解维基解密网站的巨大威力之时,有一点是显而易见的,那就是在这个全球信息时代,我们需要更深刻地了解权力是如何在世界政治中运行的。

而这也是笔者在新书《权力的未来》中想要阐述的观点。21世纪正进行着两种关于权力的变革——一种是权力的转移,另一种则是权力的扩散。前者意味着权力从一个占统治地位的国家转移到另一个,这在历史上早已屡见不鲜了,而后者则是个更为新颖的过程。但当今所有国家所共同面对的问题,就是连最强大的国家都无法完全控制政治生活的方方面面。

在权力转移方面,人们将过多的精力浪费在了假想中的美国衰退上,并常常将其比作历史上的英国和罗马。须知罗马在到达权力巅峰后的三个世纪内还依然保持着统治地位,它也并非陷落于另一个国家的崛起之中,而是在无数野蛮部落的蚕食下走向了灭亡。

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