从雷曼兄弟身上吸取教训

香港—五年前,当美国投行雷曼兄弟倒闭时,新兴市场经济体并未大量持有助长随后全球金融危机的有毒金融资产(主要是美国次级按揭贷款)。但世界贸易却出现了断崖式下降(超过15%),贸易融资也急剧收缩(因为美元流动性短缺),这给新兴市场经济体带来了严重影响。

危机爆发后不久,G20国家纷纷采取大规模刺激计划、发达经济体的非常规货币政策以及美国多德-弗兰克等金融改革法和旨在加强银行监管和稳健运行的巴塞尔III计划等重大制度性措施。中国在2008年11月推出了四万亿人民币的刺激计划,重振了全球商品市场的信心。在中国强劲增长的带动下,新兴市场开始企稳。

2009年以来,美联储的量化宽松(QE)给全世界带来了创纪录的低利率。但是,由此产生的流向新兴市场的资本流虽然刺激了经济增长,也带来了资产泡沫。

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