Tim Brinton

Le coût de la prévention des crises

BRUXELLES – La crise financière a éclaté il y a deux ans et c'est seulement maintenant que nous commençons à réaliser combien elle est coûteuse. Selon Andrew Haldane de la Banque d'Angleterre, les pertes de production à venir pourraient atteindre 100% du PIB mondial.

Cette estimation paraît étonnement élevée, pourtant elle est relativement modérée ; car elle se base sur l'hypothèse que seulement le quart des pertes initiales dues à la crise entraînera une baisse de production permanente. Les plus pessimistes estiment que la presque totalité, si ce n'est la totalité des pertes dues à la crise, aura un impact permanent sur la production. En conséquence ils prévoient une baisse de production qui pourrait atteindre deux à trois fois le PIB mondial.

Le PIB mondial annuel s'élève à 60 000 milliards de dollars, soit cinq siècles d'aide publique au développement, ou pour être plus concret, dix milliards de salles de classe dans des villages africains. Certes, cette somme n'a pas beaucoup de conséquences directes sur le budget de l'Etat (le coût total des plans de sauvetage des banques est beaucoup plus faible), mais la perte de production est le paramètre à prendre en compte lorsqu'on cherche à réduire la fréquence des crises.

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