La economía global post-crisis en tres palabras

PARÍS – Cinco años han pasado desde que el colapso del banco de inversión norteamericano Lehman Brothers desató el caos financiero y marcó el inicio de la Gran Recesión. Si bien el polvo tal vez todavía no se haya asentado del todo, tres muletillas resumen lo que hemos aprendido hasta la fecha -y lo que todavía queda por hacer.

La primera palabra que me viene a la mente es resiliencia. Hace cinco años, muchos temían una repetición de la Gran Depresión de los años 1930. De hecho, como han demostrado Barry Eichengreen y Kevin O'Rourke, el colapso de la producción industrial mundial en 2008-2009 en un principio seguía perfectamente los pasos del de 1929-1930. La caída del volumen de comercio mundial y de los índices accionarios fue aún más veloz.

Afortunadamente, los caminos históricos luego divergieron. Cinco años después de la crisis de 1929, el mundo todavía estaba sumido en una depresión y el comercio se había contraído marcadamente. Hoy, Estados Unidos todavía atraviesa su peor recesión en materia de empleo desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial y el PBI de Europa no ha regresado a los niveles previos a la crisis, pero la producción global ha crecido 15% desde 2008, y el comercio mundial ha subido más del 12%.

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