L'economia globale post crisi in tre parole

PARIGI – Sono passati cinque anni da quando il crollo della banca d'affari americana Lehman Brothers sconvolse il mondo finanziario segnando l'inizio della Grande Recessione. Anche se le acque non si sono ancora placate del tutto, a mio avviso ciò che abbiamo imparato finora e ciò che resta ancora da fare può essere riassunto in tre parole chiave.

La prima di queste è resilienza. Cinque anni fa, molti temettero il ripetersi della Grande Depressione degli anni Trenta. In effetti, come Barry Eichengreen e Kevin O’Rourke hanno dimostrato, il crollo della produzione industriale mondiale nel 2008-2009 ricalcò inizialmente quello del 1929-1930. Anzi, il calo dei volumi del commercio mondiale e degli indici azionari fu ancora più rapido.

Fortunatamente, più avanti i due percorsi storici presero direzioni diverse. Cinque anni dopo il crollo del 1929, il mondo era ancora in una situazione di depressione e il commercio aveva subito una brusca contrazione. Oggi, malgrado gli Stati Uniti stiano ancora attraversando la peggiore recessione occupazionale dalla seconda guerra mondiale e il Pil europeo sia ancora al di sotto dei livelli pre-crisi, la produzione globale è cresciuta del 15% dal 2008, mentre il commercio mondiale è aumentato di oltre il 12%.

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