L’économie mondiale d’après-crise décrite en trois mots

PARIS – Il y a cinq ans, l’effondrement de la banque d’investissement américaine Lehman Brothers déclenchait un chaos financier, et marquait le début de la Grande Récession. Bien que la poussière ne soit pas encore totalement retombée, trois maîtres-mots résument d’ores et déjà les enseignements que nous en avons tirés jusqu’à présent – et fixent le cap de ce qu’il reste à accomplir.

Le premier terme qui se dégage est celui de résilience. Il y a cinq ans, beaucoup craignaient le retour de la Grande Dépression des années 1930. Comme l’ont en effet démontré Barry Eichengreen et Kevin O’Rourke, l’effondrement de la production industrielle mondiale de 2008-2009 a dans un premier temps suivi un schéma tout à fait identique à celui des années 1929-1930. Quant au déclin du volume des échanges commerciaux mondiaux ainsi que des indices boursiers, il s’est opéré encore plus rapidement qu’à l’époque.

Fort heureusement, ces deux situations historiques ont par la suite pris des directions différentes. Cinq ans après le krach de 1929, l’économie mondiale se trouvait encore en pleine dépression, les échanges commerciaux ayant souffert d’une contraction considérable. À l’heure actuelle, bien que les États-Unis traversent encore la plus grave crise de l’emploi depuis la Seconde guerre mondiale, et que le PIB de l’Europe n’ait toujours pas recouvré ses niveaux d’avant-crise, la production mondiale a augmenté de 15% depuis 2008, et les échanges commerciaux internationaux de plus de 12%.

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