后危机时代全球经济的三个关键词

巴黎—美国投行雷曼兄弟倒闭引发金融灾难并导致大衰退开始已经过去了五年。尽管尘埃尚未完全落定,但可以用三个流行语来总结我们迄今学到的教训和依然有待完成的任务。

第一个出现在脑海中的词是恢复力。五年前,许多人担心1930年代的大萧条将重演。事实上,艾肯格林(Barry Eichengreen)和奥罗尔克(Kevin O’Rourke)指出,2008—2009年的世界工业产出崩溃一开始与1929—1939年的轨迹十分相似。世界贸易量和股票指数的跌幅更是有过之。

幸运的是,随后历史路径出现了分歧。1929年后的五年,世界仍在萧条中挣扎,贸易大幅萎缩。如今,美国仍在从二战以来最严重的就业衰退中恢复,欧洲GDP也尚未恢复到危机前水平,但全球产出较2008年增加了15%,世界贸易增加了12%。

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