Populisten aan de poorten van Europa

LONDEN – Is de Europese crisis voorbij? Stilletjes beginnen beleggers, beleidsanalisten en zelfs bewindslieden daarop te zinspelen. Sinds Mario Draghi van de Europese Centrale Bank op 26 juli plechtig verklaarde “al het mogelijke te zullen doen” om de euro in stand te houden, heeft de euro al bijna 10% gewonnen ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse dollar.

De euro VIX-index, een populaire maatstaf voor de verwachte eurovolatiliteit, is ondertussen aanzienlijk gezakt. Het prijskaartje dat aan bescherming tegen fluctuaties in de euro/dollar-wisselkoers hangt, is de afgelopen maand op het laagste niveau in bijna vijf jaar tijd uitgekomen. Voor Spaanse en Italiaanse overheden zijn de leenkosten eveneens spectaculair gedaald.

Deze veranderingen in de marktomstandigheden worden door een consistent verhaal geruggensteund. De Europese leiders hebben mechanismen ingevoerd om Italië en Spanje te kunnen steunen. Sinds oktober beschikt het Europese continent over een operationeel Europees Stabiliteitsmechanisme (ESM) dat nieuwe Italiaanse en Spaanse staatsobligaties kan kopen indien beleggers een kopersstaking afkondigen.

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