Los peligros de atacar a Irán

En el invierno de 2002-03, los partidarios del cambio de régimen en Irak se mostraban optimistas acerca de la fase post-invasión de la guerra. Todo aquél que sugiriera que lo que ocurre hoy era un escenario probable era tildado de pro-Saddam, antiestadounidense, o ambas cosas. Sin embargo, una evaluación serena de las dificultades que había por delante habría ayudado a evitar muchos de los errores que han terminado por ser tan costosos en términos de vidas y recursos estadounidenses, por no mencionar el sufrimiento de los iraquíes.

Ahora algunas voces en Estados Unidos y otros lugares están proponiendo acciones militares contra Irán. De modo que es lógico preguntar: ¿cuáles son los escenarios realistas sobre las consecuencias de una intervención así? ¿Hay planes sobre cómo manejar la situación posterior al ataque?

Sin duda, quienes están dispuestos a atacar –ya sea solos o en una coalición- tienen una gama de opciones, desde bloqueos navales y aéreos hasta incursiones con objetivos definidos, sabotajes dentro del país, y un ataque masivo desde el exterior. Sin embargo, los iraníes también tienen cartas bajo la manga, algunas predecibles y otras que son comodines.

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