Die Party ist vorbei

MÜNCHEN amp#45;amp#45; Der Boom der Weltwirtschaft ist zu Ende, nachdem sich die USA immer mehr auf eine Rezession zubewegen. Mit einem Wachstum von etwa 5 Prozent war der jetzige Boom ungewöhnlich lang und gefestigt; eine Periode mit einer solch kräftigen Dynamik hat es etwa seit 1970 nicht mehr gegeben. 

Das deutlichste Anzeichen für das Ende des Booms ist die Wachstumsprognose des Währungsfonds für die amerikanische Wirtschaft in Höhe von 1,5% für 2008. Das sieht zwar nicht wie eine Rezession aus, aber der Zahlenwert resultiert überwiegend aus dem sogenannten Wachstumsüberhang des Jahres 2007. Der Beitrag des Jahres 2008 ist nur noch gering. Die  Prognose des IWF ist mit einem Nullwachstum in drei aufeinander folgenden Quartalen des Jahres 2008 kompatibel.

Viele meinen, dass eine Rezession in den USA keine Auswirkungen auf die Weltwirtschaft hat, da China nun an die Stelle der USA getreten sei, aber das ist eine Illusion. Obwohl China schnell wächst, ist sein ökonomisches Gewicht immer noch klein. Währen die USA 28% zum Sozialprodukt der Welt beitragen, erzeugt China nur 5%. Ganz Asien, von der Türkei bis China, steuert  gerade einmal 24% bei, weniger als die USA allein.

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