破除恶习

发自纽黑文——全球最庞大的两个经济体——美国和中国——最终似乎开始走上一条通向政策正常化的道路,这可不会是一件容易的事。在一度沉迷于似乎无穷无尽的, 建立在2008-2009年间深度危机之中的超级宽松货币政策之后,金融市场如今已是苟延残喘。讽刺是,由于非常规政策的牵引力一直都是有限的,因此其对实体经济的影响往往也不会很大。

美联储和中国人民银行走的是同一种路径,但其动机却截然不同。对美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)及其同僚来说,人们似乎越来越强烈地认为经济危机已经过去了,这意味着特殊行动——也就是,零利率政策和资产负债表的近四倍扩张——已经没必要存在了。相反地,中国人民银行正在进行更为先发制人的打击——试图通过减少过度杠杆来保证稳定,但一直以来都支持着越发以来信贷的中国实体经济都是依靠这些杠杆支撑着的。

这两种行动都是明智之举,只是来得有些迟。当美联储第一轮量化宽松政策帮助金融市场终结在最近这场危机低谷的混乱之后,随后两轮(包括当前尚未看到终点的第三轮的量化宽松政策)几乎没有减轻过度挥霍的美国消费者身上挥之不去的压力。确实,家庭负债仍然超过个人可支配收入的110%,而个人储蓄率则保持在3%以下,与20世纪最后三十年75%的比率和7.9%的储蓄率相比显得非常不利。

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