Paul Lachine

Guerra e Pace Valutaria

WASHINGTON, DC – Gran parte del clamore che circondava l’incontro del mese scorso, a Mosca, dei ministri delle finanze del G-20 e dei banchieri centrali era dedicata alle cosiddette “guerre valutarie”, che alcuni dirigenti di paesi in via di sviluppo hanno accusato i paesi avanzati di combattere mediante politiche monetarie non convenzionali. Ma si è ampiamente trascurata un’altra questione cruciale – quella del finanziamento degli investimenti a lungo termine-, anche se alla fine per avere una politica monetaria non convenzionale sarà necessario che nell’economia globale vi sia il rilancio o la creazione di nuove attività e passività proprio nel lungo termine.

Il crollo di Lehman Brothers del 2008 ha determinato un rialzo dei premi di rischio e scatenato il panico sui mercati finanziari, indebolendo le titoli azionari negli Stati Uniti e in altre parti del mondo, e minacciando di provocare una stretta creditizia. Al fine di evitare che le azioni venissero svendute – cosa che avrebbero portato ad un turbolento disfacimento dei bilanci del settore privato, magari innescando una nuova “Grande Depressione”, o addirittura facendo crollare la zona euro – le banche centrali dei paesi avanzati hanno cominciato ad acquistare poste azionarie rischiose e ad aumentare i prestiti agli istituti finanziari, ampliando così l’offerta di moneta.

Sebbene i timori di un crollo si siano dissipati, queste politiche sono state mantenute o estese, in ragione secondo i politici della fragilità della ripresa economica in atto e dell’assenza di altre leve strategiche ugualmente forti - come la politica fiscale o le riforme strutturali –, in grado di sostituire abbastanza in fretta la politica monetaria.

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