Une interprétation erronée du rééquilibrage chinois

NEW HAVEN – Le quatrième pouvoir a une fois encore succombé au syndrome du « crash chinois » – un mal qui semble affliger les experts économiques et politiques de manière intermittente. Peu importe les fausses alertes répétées des vingt dernières années. Cette fois-ci, c’est différent, prétend le chœur des sceptiques de la Chine.

Oui, l’économie chinoise est ralentie. Enlisé dans la crise, l’Occident rêverait bien sûr d’avoir une croissance annuelle du PIB de 7,5%, chiffre confirmé par le Bureau national des statistiques chinois pour le second trimestre 2013, même s’il constitue certainement un ralentissement appréciable par rapport à la croissance de 10% enregistrée de 1980 à 2010.

Mais l’émoi des sceptiques ne s’est pas uniquement focalisé sur la question du ralentissement. Il existe aussi des inquiétudes sur la dette excessive et des craintes associées à la fragilité du système bancaire; des préoccupations sur l’effondrement de la bulle de l’immobilier, toujours présente ; et plus important, le manque présumé de progrès significatifs en matière de rééquilibrage économique – le tant attendu basculement d’une croissance bancale portée par les exportations et les investissements vers un modèle fondé sur la consommation intérieure privée.

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