对中国经济再平衡的误读

发自纽黑文市——评论员们再一次患上了“中国崩溃”综合症——此病似乎每隔几年就会感染一下这帮经济和政治评论家们。尽管过去几十年发出了无数次假警报,但在中国怀疑论者眼中,这一次狼真的要来了。

没错,中国经济已经放缓。7.5%的GDP年增长率对受到危机冲击的西方国家堪称痴人说梦——但这却是中国国家统计局报告的2013年第二季度增长,这显示出1980到2010间年均10%的增长趋势明显减速了。

但中国怀疑论者忧虑的并不仅仅是中国的经济放缓。他们也担忧过多的债务和脆弱的银行系统;担心一直存在的房地产泡沫会破灭;而最担心的则是预计在经济再平衡方面将缺乏实质性进展——人们原本一直期待中国从失衡的出口及投资导向增长模式转到由国内私人消费推动的增长模式。

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