Los delirios militares del Medio Oriente

La paradoja de la violencia actual en Israel, la franja de Gaza y Líbano es que la solución al conflicto palestino-israelí no es difícil de ver. Una gran mayoría de los israelíes y los palestinos están a favor de crear dos Estados, esencialmente a lo largo de las fronteras previas a 1967. Los Estados árabes más importantes, incluyendo Egipto, Arabia Saudita y otros, comparten ese punto de vista. El problema no radica en ver la solución, sino en llegar a ella porque las minorías poderosas y a menudo violentas de ambos lados se oponen a una solución apoyada por la mayoría.

Tal vez tres cuartas partes de los israelíes y los palestinos desean la paz y un arreglo, mientras que una cuarta parte de cada lado –frecuentemente impulsada por el celo religioso extremista- quiere una victoria total sobre el otro. Los palestinos radicales quieren destruir Israel, mientras que los israelíes radicales exigen el control de toda Cisjordania por medio de una ocupación continua o incluso (según una pequeña minoría) un retiro por la fuerza de la población palestina.

Cuando la paz parece estar cerca, los radicales de un lado o del otro del conflicto provocan una explosión para descarrilarla. Algunas veces esto implica un conflicto manifiesto entre los radicales y los moderados de un lado, como cuando un fanático religioso israelí asesinó al Primer Ministro Yitzhak Rabin cuando las negociaciones de paz estaban progresando. Algunas veces implica un ataque terrorista por parte de radicales palestinos en contra de los civiles israelíes, con la esperanza de provocar una respuesta exageradamente violenta de parte de Israel que rompa el proceso de creación de confianza entre los moderados de ambos bandos.

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