Las cinco crisis del Oriente Próximo

La región entre Egipto y Pakistán es un caldero de cinco componentes claros y explosivos: el conflicto civil en Iraq, la insurgencia en Afganistán, las ambiciones nucleares de Irán, el largo conflicto árabe-israelí, y el riesgo de que se produzcan choques entre grupos extremistas y gobiernos corruptos y represivos. Se necesita una política de amplio alcance y, no obstante, las amenazas son tan diversas y complejas que se deben aplicar enfoques distintos de manera simultánea.

En Iraq, la política estadounidense de crear un estado semifederal de chiíes, suníes y kurdos corre un alto riesgo de fracasar debido a la dominación chií, el terrorismo suní y chií, el separatismo kurdo y las intromisiones de Irán. El coste en vidas ya es insoportablemente alto. Estados Unidos no puede continuar teniendo el índice actual de víctimas (ya sean estadounidenses o iraquíes) o de gastos. Para crear las condiciones para una estabilidad de largo plazo, puede ser necesaria una separación negociada, comparable con el Acuerdo de Paz de Dayton que acabó con la guerra en la ex Yugoslavia.

Separar las poblaciones de Iraq sería doloroso. El Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados (ACNUR) y las fuerzas de la coalición encabezada por Estados Unidos debería ayudar a la gente que desea mudarse a otras partes del país. Uno puede objetar que facilitar la reubicación interna es colaborar con la ampquot;limpieza étnica o religiosaampquot;, pero el coste de una guerra prolongada en Iraq, que podría llevar a su desmembramiento de todos modos, es mucho peor. El principio del pluralismo es valioso, pero poner fin al baño de sangre merece la prioridad.

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