Les cinq crises du Moyen-Orient

La région comprise entre l'Egypte et le Pakistan est le foyer de cinq crises explosives différentes : la guerre civile larvée en Irak, les actions rebelles en Afghanistan, les ambitions nucléaires de l'Iran, le conflit israélo-arabe qui n'en finit pas et le risque de violences entre des groupes extrémistes et des gouvernements corrompus et répressifs. Si une politique globale est nécessaire dans cette région, les menaces sont tellement diverses et complexes qu'il faut appliquer simultanément des solutions individualisées à chacune de ces crises.

En Irak, la politique américaine consistant à construire un Etat semi-fédéral avec des Chiites, des sunnites et des Kurdes risque fort d'échouer en raison de la domination chiite, du terrorisme sunnite et chiite, du séparatisme kurde et des interférences iraniennes. Le coût de la vie a atteint un niveau insupportable. Les USA ne peuvent continuer à payer la facture du conflit, que ce soit en termes financiers ou humains (que les victimes soient américaines ou irakiennes). La stabilité à long terme passe sans doute par une séparation négociée, analogue aux accords de paix de Dayton qui ont mis fin à la guerre dans l'ex-Yougoslavie.

La séparation sera douloureuse. Le Haut commissariat des Nations unies pour les réfugiés (HCR) et les forces de la coalition menée par les USA pourraient aider au transfert des habitants qui voudraient s'installer dans une autre partie du pays. On peut objecter que cela revient à collaborer à un ampquot;nettoyage ethnique ou religieuxampquot;, mais le prix à payer si la guerre se prolonge (ce qui conduira probablement aussi à une partition du pays) sera bien plus élevé. Le principe du pluralisme est respectable, mais il faut donner la priorité à l'arrêt du bain de sang.

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