中东的五大危机

在埃及与巴基斯坦之间的地区融合着五个互不相干、爆炸性的元素,即伊拉克内乱、阿富汗的叛乱、伊朗的核野心、旷日持久的以阿冲突以及在极端主义团体与腐败、压迫的政府之间冲突的危险。需要采取一个全面性的政策来解决这些问题,然而威胁的种类是如此多样化并且复杂,各种措施必须要多管齐下才会有效果。

在伊拉克,美国关于建立一个由什叶派、逊尼派和库尔德人组成的半联邦政府的策略因为什叶派的支配地位、逊尼派和什叶派的恐怖活动、库尔德人的分裂主义以及伊朗的干涉而极有可能走向失败。生命的代价已经到达难以容忍地高的程度。美国无法承受目前的伤亡率(不管是美国的还是伊拉克的)以及费用。为了给长期稳定创造条件,也许需要一种与结束前南战争的戴顿和平协议相类似的通过谈判对国家进行分割。

把伊拉克的人民分割开是令人痛苦的。联合国难民事务高级专员公署和美国领导的联合部队应当帮助那些想要搬到国家的其他地区去的人们。也许有人会反对说实施内部的重新安置无异于在迎合“种族或宗教清洗”。但是伊拉克长期战争的代价无疑会不管如何都会导致它的分割,是比这更糟糕的结果。多元化的原则是有价值的,但是制止流血冲突是应该被优先考虑的问题。

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