秋天的已知的未知

纽约—在伊拉克战争最高峰,时任美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德提出了“已知的未知”——可预见的、如何成为现实还不确定的风险。如今,全球经济面临着诸多已知的未知,其中大多数来自政策不确定性。

在美国,政策不确定性的三大源泉将在今年秋天汇合。首先,美联储是否会在9月或更晚“逐渐退出”其无期限量化宽松(QE)、其减少长期资产购买量的节奏有多快以及它何时、以多快节奏开始将利率从近零水平提高仍不清楚。另一个问题是谁会接任伯南克的美联储主席一职。最后,关于美国债务上限的新一轮党派之争可能会提高政府破产风险,如果共和党控制的众议院和总统奥巴马及其民主党盟友无法就预算达成一致的话。

前两个不确定性源泉已经开始影响市场。美国长期利率的上升——从5月低点1.6%升至目前高点2.9%以上——是因为市场担心美联储会过早、过急的逐渐退出QE以及围绕伯南克继任者的不确定性。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/UHjrSZW/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now