秋天的已知的未知

纽约—在伊拉克战争最高峰,时任美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德提出了“已知的未知”——可预见的、如何成为现实还不确定的风险。如今,全球经济面临着诸多已知的未知,其中大多数来自政策不确定性。

在美国,政策不确定性的三大源泉将在今年秋天汇合。首先,美联储是否会在9月或更晚“逐渐退出”其无期限量化宽松(QE)、其减少长期资产购买量的节奏有多快以及它何时、以多快节奏开始将利率从近零水平提高仍不清楚。另一个问题是谁会接任伯南克的美联储主席一职。最后,关于美国债务上限的新一轮党派之争可能会提高政府破产风险,如果共和党控制的众议院和总统奥巴马及其民主党盟友无法就预算达成一致的话。

前两个不确定性源泉已经开始影响市场。美国长期利率的上升——从5月低点1.6%升至目前高点2.9%以上——是因为市场担心美联储会过早、过急的逐渐退出QE以及围绕伯南克继任者的不确定性。

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