Los límites de Dubai

Cambridge – Los inversores globales están resoplando de furia por la decisión de Dubai de permitir que su compañía privada de bandera Dubai World solicite una moratoria de seis meses (lo que implica un incumplimiento de pagos al menos parcial) en el pago de una deuda de aproximadamente 26.000 millones de dólares. ¿Qué esperaban exactamente los inversores cuando compraron bonos en empresas con nombres del tipo “Limitless World” (Mundo Sin Límites), una de las quebradas subsidiarias de bienes raíces de Dubai World? Estamos frente a una mentalidad de burbuja.

La idea, imagino, era que el gobierno del emirato respaldaría cada crédito, no importa lo riesgoso que fuera. Y si el gobierno de Dubai, pobre en petróleo, no tenía el dinero, entonces de alguna manera Abu Dhabi, su hermano rico en petróleo, escupiría el efectivo necesario.

Una expectativa absurda, uno podría pensar. Pero prácticamente no más improbable que cualquiera de los otros rescates masivos que hemos visto en el mundo a raíz de la reciente crisis financiera. Lo que realmente fastidió a los inversores, obviamente, fue darse cuenta de que, sí, algún día habría que retirar las garantías de deuda insostenible. Llegado el caso, un mundo excesivamente apalancado va a tener que encontrar la manera de recortar la carga de deuda, y no todo será agradable.

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