Dubai bekommt die Grenzen aufgezeigt

Cambridge, Mass.: Investoren weltweit sind in heller Aufregung über die Entscheidung Dubais, zuzulassen, dass sein privates Vorzeigeunternehmen Dubai World ein Zahlungsmoratorium von sechs Monaten (was zumindest eine teilweisen Zahlungsverzug impliziert) für seine Kredite im Umfang von etwa 26 Milliarden Dollar anstrebt. Was haben die Investoren bloß erwartet, als sie Anteile an Gesellschaften mit Namen wie „Limitless World“, einer der bankrotten Immobilientöchter von Dubai World, erwarben? Stichwort: Blasenmentalität.

Dahinter stand, so vermute ich, die Vorstellung, dass die Regierung des Emirats für jeden Kredit einstehen würde, egal, wie riskant er sein mochte. Und wenn das ölarme Dubai das Geld nicht hätte, würde sein ölreicher Schwesterstaat Abu Dhabi das Geld schon irgendwie locker machen.

Eine absurde Erwartung, sollte man meinen. Aber kaum unwahrscheinlicher als viele andere enorme Bailouts, die wir im Gefolge der jüngsten Finanzkrise weltweit erlebt haben. Was die Investoren in Wahrheit so aufgeregt, ist natürlich die Erkenntnis, dass die unhaltbaren Kreditbürgschaften tatsächlich irgendwann zurückgezogen werden müssen. Irgendwann wird unsere überschuldete Welt einen Weg finden müssen, ihre Schuldenlast zurechtzustutzen, und das wird nicht angenehm.

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