Los límites de la revolución del consumo de China

SHANGHÁI – La economía de China está en una encrucijada. En el comienzo del 2013, los observadores extranjeros y domésticos por igual se preguntan qué camino debería tomar el desarrollo económico del país en la próxima década. ¿Cómo puede asegurar China un crecimiento estable y sustentable de cara a los importantes desafíos internos y externos, entre ellos una desaceleración del crecimiento a mediano y largo plazo, crecientes costos de mano de obra y una presión inflacionaria cada vez mayor?

Después de que la crisis económica global debilitó la demanda externa, que sustentó el crecimiento económico sin precedentes de China durante tres décadas, las autoridades acordaron que la demanda interna, especialmente el consumo doméstico, debe convertirse en el nuevo motor de crecimiento del país. En el congreso del Partido Comunista chino en noviembre, los líderes de China manifestaron su intención de duplicar el ingreso per capita para 2020, generando 64 billones de renminbi (10,2 billones de dólares) en poder adquisitivo.

Por cierto, con aproximadamente 130 millones de consumidores de clase media, el mercado doméstico de China tiene un potencial significativo. El Boston Consulting Group estima que, con una tasa promedio de crecimiento anual del PBI del 7% en China y del 2% en Estados Unidos, el consumo doméstico chino aumentará a la mitad del de Estados Unidos para 2015, y al 80% en 2020 (suponiendo que el renminbi se aprecie a una tasa promedio del 3% contra el dólar estadounidense en los próximos años).

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