El campo de juego libanés

Durante las últimas semanas, los políticos libaneses de grupos tan diversos como Hezbollá o las Fuerzas Libanesas Cristianas se han estado reuniendo de manera intermitente en lo que se ha dado en llamar un “Diálogo Nacional”. Su principal objetivo es llegar a un consenso para el futuro del Líbano tras el retiro de las fuerzas sirias el año pasado. Sin embargo, lo que su diálogo ha puesto al descubierto es hasta qué punto la política libanesa sigue siendo moldeada por fuerzas externas.

El régimen sirio del Presidente Bashar Assad conserva una enorme influencia en áreas claves del estado libanés, como el aparato de inteligencia y seguridad, el ejército y el poder judicial, para no mencionar su alianza con Hezbollá, que tiene un importante poderío militar. Aunque los soldados sirios se retiraron del Líbano hace un año, el régimen de Assad no se ha logrado conformar, e intenta volver a imponer alguna forma de hegemonía sobre el país.

La postura de Siria se ve complicada por una investigación en curso de las Naciones Unidad, que la acusa de estar involucrada en el asesinato del ex Primer Ministro Rafiq Hariri, el 14 de febrero de 2005. Aunque los aliados de Siria en el Líbano han llamado a mejorar los lazos entre ambos países, el asesinato de Hariri lo hace poco probable. Por el momento, los partidos libaneses han acordado no permitir que su territorio se utilice como base para ninguna supuesta amenaza al régimen sirio.

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