El laberinto libanés

Líbano está a punto de celebrar unas elecciones presidenciales que ninguna de las facciones que compiten –en efecto, ninguno de los partidos rivales de la región—puede darse el lujo de perder.

Empecemos con Siria. En 2005, el régimen del Presidente Bashar Assad se vio obligado a retirar su ejército de Líbano, tras el asesinato del ex Primer Ministro libanés Rafiq Hariri. Generalmente se cree que Siria fue responsable de ese crimen, y la presión interna aunada a la presión internacional contribuyó al retiro sirio. Sin embargo, en un discurso pronunciado poco después, Assad advirtió que nada podría interrumpir las relaciones sirio-libanesas.

Assad sabe que la elección de un presidente que refuerce la soberanía e independencia de Líbano dificultaría el regreso de Siria, y él, como aun sus propios aliados admiten en privado, no quiere otra cosa. En efecto, fue suya la decisión de extender, de manera anticonstitucional, el período del confiable presidente libanés pro-sirio Emile Lahoud en 2004 que desató la crisis política que condujo al asesinato de Hariri y el surgimiento de la coalición de grupos antisirios que incluían a muchos ex aliados de Siria.

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