克林姆林宫的两步走战略

发自莫斯科——西方人总喜欢把俄罗斯政治圈的一切事情都解读成自由派和保守派的高层斗争:戈尔巴乔夫时代是利加乔夫和雅克福列夫之争;叶利钦治下是改革派和国家主义者互斗;到了普京时代则是“西罗维基”(siloviki,意指由前苏联安全和军事部门组成的“强力集团”)和经济自由主义者针锋相对。这些西方人同时也认为俄罗斯政治的传统就是每一个新“沙皇”都力图在一定程度上否定其前任的遗产,因此也会在每一个时代之初迎来一段政治解冻期。赫鲁晓夫对斯大林的否定就是第一个证据。

而上述两种思维也被套用到了普京和梅德韦杰夫的关系之上——用来解释两者之间关系的本质和内在动力,以及将为俄罗斯带来什么。但在我看来,这些人都是糊涂虫。

如果将梅德韦杰夫解释成仅仅是普京的一个傀儡,一个实现普京第二次,第三次当选总统的宪法跳板的话,那么不但不公平,而且是错误的。作为俄罗斯的第三任总统的梅氏其实承担着更广泛的角色和截然不同的作用。相反,将普京描述为“明日黄花”,将梅德韦杰夫看作“未来之星”都是夸大了两人之间的差异并忽略了两人得以联合的重要因素。为此我们需要一个更好的分析模型。

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